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Stats show OT charity point is affecting late-game scoring

Greg Wyshynski | December 21, 2009

As of earlier this month, the NHL was on a record pace for games ending in a shootout, potentially breaking 200 for the 2009-10 season. As Gus Katsaros pointed out on Fadoo, the compressed schedule for the Olympics could be a factor; but whatever it is, the increase in shootouts has led to an alarming decrease in quality offensive hockey late in games, according to the numbers.

Stats wiz Gabriel Desjardins of Behind The Net had a piece for the Wall Street Journal that showed a startling drop in scoring for the last three minutes of regulation and all of the 5-minute OT:

Initially, NHL teams didn’t take advantage of this extra point: in 2005-06, the first year of the shootout, the percentage of tie games after overtime hit a 12-year low. But 40% of the way through this season, the rate is at an all-time high, along with the percentage of games going into overtime.

This year, teams have stopped taking chances late in tie games so they can guarantee themselves the point in extra time. Even though league-wide scoring is essentially unchanged relative to the previous four seasons, the scoring rate has dropped 17% in overtime and-indicative of team strategies-44% in the last three minutes of regulation in tied games.

If that isn’t an indictment of the NHL’s current points and overtime formats, we’re not sure what is.

According to Desjardins, 27.9 percent of games are going to overtime this season, way up from 22.9 percent last season. Scoring in the last three minutes of regulation stands at 2.05 goals per 60 minutes, down big from 3.43 last season. Overtime scoring is also down well over a goal per 60 minutes, with an average of 5.44 this season to 6.59 in 2008-09.

And you thought "playing for the tie" ended when the shootout was adopted …

If you read this blog, you know our feelings on both the shootout (yuck) and the current points format (double yuck). The stats are fodder for the critics, even if taken in context they’re a bit of anomaly historically.

Everyone and their mother has a way to "fix" these systems, but lately the focus has been on motivation. Gus Katsaros on Fadoo explains in a number-crunching piece on tie games:

Aside from minor differences, the point system doesn’t really matter. It’s not about points and systems.

It’s about motivation.

Detroit Red Wings general manager, Ken Holland, proposed a change to the end-of-season tie-breaking measure from wins to regulation wins. It targeted motivation to win, not point systems.

Motivation is something Desjardins mentioned in passing on the WSJ site, because the gamble on the shootout is a safer bet than a gamble at the end of regulation or during overtime:

Teams seem to have figured out that dragging 10 games to the shootout is as good as winning five more games in regulation and can vault a team into the playoffs. Therefore, the weaker team on any given night has an incentive to first get the game to overtime, where it is guaranteed at least a point.

With the begrudging realization that the skills competition isn’t going anywhere soon, the only way to reverse these unfortunate trends is by placing more value on regulation hockey and OT. We’ve often talked about the "three-point win" for a team ahead after 60 minutes; perhaps that needs to be extended to the 4-on-4 OT as well?

It’ll be interesting to see where the trends go after the Olympic year. If we’re still talking about downgraded offensive numbers for Minutes 57-60 and the overtime next season, then the NHL needs to seriously look at revising its standings format.

One more bit of ties vs. shootouts reading. MacLean’s had a piece back in April that dealt with the psychological benefits of tie games, and it’s worth a read; as Professor Daniel Weinstock and essayist Adam Gopnik have argued that forcing winners and losers is a bad life lesson:

If you agree with the Weinstock-Gopnik thesis, as I do, it raises two concerns about the demise of the tie game in hockey. First, there is the problem of the reduced moral ontology of the sport itself. When there is always a winner, we lose the possibility of a "moral victory", where a team that should have lost rises above its natural talent, and ekes out a tie. As anyone who has every played soccer or hockey knows, the idea of a tie that is as good as a win, or even a tie that feels as good as a loss, is an essential part of the sport’s character-building dynamic.

A second, more speculative question: If these musings are accurate, what does it say about the moral standing of the playoffs, where every game has to have a winner, right up until the last game of the last series, where there remains a single team standing, the sole victor?

Who knew kissing your sister could be so academic?

The 10 biggest hockey upsets of the last decade

Greg Wyshynski | November 10, 2009

 

(No, the first decade of the 21st century doesn’t technically end until 2011. Save your bellyaching. But we’ve had nine NHL seasons and one stolen from us since 1999-2000, and Yahoo! Sports has decided it’s time to rank the best and worst of the last "decade." Enjoy, and snark freely in the comments.)

These "end of decade" rankings aren’t all necessarily going to be confined to the National Hockey League. In some cases, other levels of competitive hockey are going to creep into the countdowns; and there’s simply no way to recall the most significant upsets of the last 10 years without discussing at least three that occurred outside of NHL rinks.

That isn’t to say that some miraculous (or heartbreaking, depending on which side of history your team was on) upsets didn’t also occur in the Stanley Cup playoffs, because they certainly did. In fact, Detroit Red Wings fans might want to skip this list, unless the championships have balanced out the embarrassing defeats at the hands of underdogs.

Here are the Top 10 biggest upsets in the last decade

10. Calgary Flames (No. 6 seed) upset Detroit Red Wings (1), 2004 Western Conference semifinals

The Red Wings were a President’s Trophy-winning 109-point team that had overcome the pesky Nashville Predators in the first round. The Flames had outlasted the Vancouver Canucks in an exhausting seven-game upset. Detroit was, to put it mildly, a heavy favorite here.

That was before Miikka Kiprusoff(notes) outplayed Curtis Joseph(notes), the Flames won back-to-back 1-0 games and bookended their 4-2 Western Conference semifinal win with overtime victories — the second clinching the upset via a Martin Gelinas(notes) goal. From blogger Jamie Fitzpatrick:

An upset? To be sure. But the Flames had the NHL’s 3rd-best defensive team this season, and are now reaping the rewards. In terms of sticking to your game plan, Calgary is this year’s most consistent playoff team. Iginla and Kiprusoff get the headlines, but you could argue that this series was won by Calgary’s young defense, painstakingly assembled through years of drafting and trading.

This was also the series where Steve Yzerman took a puck to the eye in Game 5, which you may recall as No. 9 on our Most Brutal Injuries of the Last Decade list. The Flames went on to lose to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the Stanley Cup finals, in a series vaguely remembered for Ruslan Fedotenko’s(notes) heroics and the Vinny/Iggy fight.

9. Bemidji State upsets Notre Dame, 2009 NCAA men’s hockey tournament

In 2009, we finally were given the answer to an annual scholastic hockey mystery: The hell’s a Bemidji State anyway?

Turns out it’s a small liberal arts college in Minnesota that was ready to shock the NCAA.

The Beavers were technically a No. 4 seed in the Div. I tournament, but were actually the lowest seed in the 16-team field. Which made their emphatic 5-1 stunner against No. 2 Notre Dame all the more unbelievably — along with the facts that it was Bemidji State’s first D-I tournament win in school history and just the second tourney victory in CHA conference history.

Because of the university’s size and budget, the Wall Street Journal ranked the upset as the third most-shocking in recent NCAA sports history.

The Beavers would qualify for the Frozen Four, losing to Miami (Ohio) in the semifinals. But the win over the Irish sparked a Cinderella run that, for a moment, captivated the hockey world.

8. Montreal Canadiens (8) upset Boston Bruins (1), 2002 Eastern Conference quarterfinals

The emotions in this series were off the charts. Saku Koivu(notes) had returned from Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma with a few games left in the regular season, helping the Habs to the eighth seed. Anthems where disrespected, to the point where Bill Guerin(notes) and Doug Gilmour had to cut promos urging fans not to boo. It was as vicious a rivalry series as you’d expect from these old adversaries, crystallized by this Kyle McLaren(notes) hit on Richard Zednik(notes) that earned him a two-game suspension:

In the end, the Canadiens (87 points) stunned the first-place Bruins (101 points) in six games, backstopped by superb goaltending by Jose Theodore(notes). They lost to eventual conference champ Carolina in Round 2.

7. Minnesota Wild (6) upsets Colorado Avalanche (3), 2003 Western Conference quarterfinals

Sometimes, pictures are worth 1,000 words. The one above is worth five: Wild stun Avalanche in seven.

It was Minnesota’s first playoff berth, and they were a defense-first team with Cliff Ronning as their third-leading scorer. Colorado? Uh, yeah, it had a little talent on the roster.

Things started out well for the Wild, with a 4-2 road win. Then came three straight Avalanche victories, and Coach Jacques Lemaire actually said his team had no shot to win the series after going down 3-1. But the Avs took their foot off of Minnesota’s neck in Game 5, and the Wild rallied with back-to-back overtime wins to take the series in seven – becoming, at the time, only the eighth team in NHL history to rally from a 3-1 hole with two road wins.

The Wild would eventually lose to the Ducks in the conference finals. Marian Gaborik(notes) would finish with 17 points in 18 playoff games.

6. Los Angeles Kings (7) upset Detroit Red Wings (2), 2001 Western Conference quarterfinals

The Wings were a 111-point team taking on a 92-point Kings squad, and the difference in the standings was evident in the first two Detroit victories in the series. But Los Angeles won Game 3 before the series was turned on its head in Game 4: The Kings rallied for three goals in the final 6:07 to send the game to overtime, where rookie Eric Belanger(notes) scored to knot it at two games apiece. LA would win four consecutive games to eliminate the Wings, including Adam Deadmarsh’s series-clinching tally in overtime of Game 6.

Here’s a look back at Game 6, and what playoff hockey sounds like in Hollywood (it’s been a while).

The Kings would push the eventual Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche to seven games in the following round.

5. Denmark upsets U.S., 2003 Ice Hockey World Championships

Trust us: If you lived in Denmark, you’d know this game like gospel.

The IIHF world championship tournament was held in Tampere, Finland in 2003. The U.S. had a roster of 12 NHL players, including Buffalo Sabres goalie Ryan Miller(notes). Denmark, meanwhile, was making its first appearance in the tournament’s elite pool since 1949; yes, their time between tournament appearances was the same duration as the Rangers’ Stanley Cups between 1940 and Mark Messier.

In the opening game for both nations, Denmark chased Miller and shocked the U.S. with a 5-2 victory, considered one of the biggest upsets in the tourney’s history. The loss sent the Americans to a 0-3 death spiral that had them last in their pool, and propelled Demark to another classic hockey moment: a 2-2 tie against eventual champ Canada.

4. San Jose Sharks (8) upset St. Louis Blues (1), 2000 Western Conference quarterfinals

Then-Blues Coach Joel Quenneville said it best: "I’ve never seen as many crazy goals as I have in this series … That’s not an excuse, it’s a fact."

We’ll, it’s sort of an excuse, too. The Blues were a 113-point juggernaut in the regular season, finishing first overall in the NHL; all it got them was the ignominious honor of being just the second President’s Trophy winner (at the time) to get bounced in the opening round.

They looked flat and played underwhelming hockey against a dangerous Sharks team, losing three games in a row for the first time all season in the middle of the series. The Blues attempted a comeback, pushed it to a Game 7, but were eliminated in a 3-1 San Jose victory. It was a game that featured this Owen Nolan(notes) goal/Roman Turek whiff that personified Coach Q’s weird-crap-o-meter reading on this series:

The difference between the teams was 27 points; yet doesn’t the Sharks’ upset in 1994 against the Red Wings (a difference of 18 points) still loom larger?

3. Mighty Ducks of Anaheim (7) over Detroit Red Wings (2), 2003 Western Conference quarterfinals

Had this been an 8-vs.-1 series, it may have hopped into the No. 2 slot on the countdown. Instead, it was a 110-point division champion getting absolutely stunned in a sweep by the No. 7 seeded Mighty Ducks and their untested goalie Jean-Sebastien Giguere(notes), who quickly became "tested" in stopping 165 of 171 shots he faced in the four games.

Giggy faced 64 of those shots in a classic triple-OT Game 1 that was ended with a Paul Kariya(notes) goal. The Ducks would win each game by a 1-goal margin, including Game 4’s overtime victory to eliminate the defending Stanley Cup champions and a squad that still had many of the names from its "team of the decade" run in 2002. Well, outside of Scotty Bowman and Dominik Hasek(notes), that is.

The Ducks would lose to the Devils in a seven-game Stanley Cup final that saw Giguere win Marty Brodeur’s Conn Smythe.

2. Edmonton Oilers (8) upset Detroit Red Wings (1), 2006 Western Conference quarterfinals

The Oilers snuck into the playoffs, for the first time since 2003, in the final week of the season, with 95 points. The Red Wings were the Red Wings: 124 points and the President’s Trophy in a dominating season.

It looked like business as usual for the Winged Wheel when they won Game 1 in double OT. But the Oilers and goalie Dwayne Roloson(notes) won Game 2, and Edmonton would win three one-goal games to stun the Wings and Manny Legace(notes) in six. Here’s how the clinching game went down in what was an unbelievably atmosphere in Alberta:

The Oil would advance all the way to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals before losing to the Carolina Hurricanes. These would be Steve Yzerman’s last games in the NHL. As Mike Babcock said: "I am shocked we’re in this situation."

It’s something this next juggernaut can relate to …

1. Belarus upsets Sweden, 2002 Winter Olympic quarterfinals in Salt Lake City

"For sure, it is a miracle for us … But sometimes a gun without bullets can shoot, and that was us. We’ve made our place in history."

That was Belarus goalie Andrei Mezin, and we’re still not entirely sure what that metaphor meant, although it’s vaguely sexual. Here’s what we did know: Belarus had been outscored 16-2 in its earlier two games. It was a 10 million-to-1 shot to win the gold. A guy named Andrei Mezin was their goalie. Ruslan Salei(notes) was their only NHL player.

Despite all of this, Belarus found a way to slow down the Swedes’ attack and play even with the international powerhouse until one of the single most stunning moments in recent Olympic history, courtesy of Vladimir Kopat and soon-to-be-hockey-punchline Tommy Salo:

Belarus won, 4-3, advancing to the semifinals where they lost to Canada, 7-1. In the immortal words of former Toronto Maple Leafs star Mats Sundin(notes): "I don’t understand how we could lose against this team."

Puck Daddy’s Best & Worst of the Decade lists will run on Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday through the end of 2009. (Yes, that includes holidays; cynical appraisal never sleeps.)

As DirecTV feud drags on, could Bettman’s VS gamble pay off?

Greg Wyshynski | October 14, 2009

Not a good week for puckheads with DirecTV, which continues to keep the Versus network off of its system in a negotiating standoff that’s now in its seventh week.

Last night’s upset by the Buffalo Sabres over the Detroit Red Wings was unavailable to DTV subscribers in both hockey-mad cities. More tragically, the Chicago Blackhawks‘ comeback win over the Calgary Flames on Monday — one of the greatest regular-season rallies in NHL history — was invisible for the DirecTV viewership.

The latter blackout had Mark Kiley from Blackhawks Confidential super steamed:

Not only did I not have the option to watch the game, neither did 18 million other DirecTV subscribers.  Way to sell the game Bettman.  You’re a frickin’ genius.  The pressure you have applied to both Comcast and DirecTV to negotiate a compromise has produced what so far?  Nothing.  Once again selling the NHL is nothing more than an afterthought on the American sports landscape.

Why has Bettman not at least pulled the exclusive rights from Versus?  Surely, he didn’t enter into agreement that gave him no outs if the NHL audience shrunk by 18 million.  Bettman should pull the exclusive rights deal and allow the clubs local broadcasters to televise the games as well.  Doing so would also free up the NHL network to air classic contests such as last night’s Hawks-Flames game.

Yes, pull the exclusive rights from the only cable network willing to ante up massive coin for the NHL, and in the process break that contract — one assumes there isn’t an "out" clause for a situation like this — to appease a sliver of the television audience, while undercutting Versus for the rest of the hockey viewing public. Now that’s "frickin’ genius."

This isn’t to say that the dispute isn’t a massive headache for the League, because it is. There’s some hope between the sides, which is good news. But some other developments with Versus and Comcast are even better news for Bettman and his much-maligned U.S. TV deal. Could his gamble actually pay off?

Know this: DirecTV and Versus are talking. This is good news in a negotiation that’s been anything but harmonious.

The bad news is that DirecTV continues to muddy the waters in this dispute by claiming that Versus is asking for an untenable rate hike; which is a statement that’s picked up by local media whenever this dispute hits home. As we reported exclusively this month, Versus has a "zero total dollar increase" proposal on the table that apparently hasn’t greased the gears to end this standoff — even if it rendered the DirecTV "rate hike" outrage moot.

What’s the solution in the short-term? Taking away exclusivity for live games from Versus is a non-starter, but Stu Hackel of the New York Times offers this idea:

If the league wants to help its fans here, the least it could do would be to run the Versus games delayed on the NHL Network in the scheduled spot where it replays games from the previous night.

Those slots are very early morning and the afternoon and it wouldn’t be a solution, but the games wouldn’t be live and probably wouldn’t violate any exclusivity agreements with Versus. Viewers could at least record the games and watch at their convenience, which is better than nothing for now and would be a gesture to fans from a league that could do a little bit better here.

Not a bad thought, even if watching moldy games on cable in an Internet world may be more about an olive branch than something to which fans would flock.

You know what fans do flock to? The NFL. The Olympics. College football. Big-time golf events. Say, doesn’t NBC have those relationships? Comcast, the parent company for Versus, knows it does, which is why it’s sniffing around a purchase of NBC Universal. From the Wall Street Journal:

Versus is in 75 million homes and averaged 125,000 viewers this year through Oct. 4, up 17% from a year earlier, according estimates from Nielsen Co. "We have a huge opportunity," [Comcast exec Jeff] Shell said of Versus at the June marketing conference in New York, to create "another sports brand in America," he said. Still, Versus’s average number of viewers is less than a seventh of ESPN’s, and just over a third of that on ESPN2.

Winning new sports rights would cost money on top of NBC Universal’s already hefty commitments, including more than $600 million a year for its NFL games, and the $2 billion it has committed for the next two Olympics. Many packages of rights are already locked up for years.

But size could bring other advantages. College-sports conferences, in particular, want deals that cover multiple outlets to air more of their events. ESPN has been most able to do so, for instance, putting one game on ABC and another on ESPN2.

Indeed. Versus would, in theory, receive bigger-time college football and the Olympic spillover that networks like CNBC receive from the parent network.

While the NFL’s Sunday Night Football games would certainly remain on NBC, there would be a chance to bring the network’s personalities and some semblance of NFL coverage to Versus as well.

When Bettman and the NHL chose OLN and Comcast as their cable partner after the lockout, it was because they were willing to pay significant rights fees for hockey — much higher than what ESPN was offering. But it was also a wager that Comcast could add significant properties to the network in order to challenge ESPN’s dominance on cable. It didn’t land Major League Baseball. It didn’t land the NFL. But college football, cage-fighting and Indy racing were incremental steps; joining the NBC family, and adding the NFL and the Olympics, would be a massive leap towards that goal.

There are always going to be those who say the NHL needs to be back on ESPN, and we’ve edged off the fence to agree with them. Should this deal between Comcast and NBC happen, it certainly changes the dynamic in that argument and, barring the end results, would validate Bettman’s gamble on the fledgling cable net.

Hey: Color us optimistic on this one. You gotta have hope. Puck Buddy Lukes O. did about the DirecTV/Versus mess, and look what happened:

I am a university student in Pennsylvania that lives on campus. In our dorms we have a unique Direct TV package. We don’t have a box in each room, we just plug into the wall. This morning to my surprise I put on Versus just to see if anything had changed and in fact it has, Versus was back on.

What’s an education without Sports Soup and extreme fishing, right?

Beer Run Blog 2009-05-09 01:30:00

Ed Sealover | May 9, 2009

An Elegy for an Up-and-Coming BreweryToday is a sad day. Even as I sit at my computer typing this, John Dunfee may be pouring the final beer at Arctic Craft Brewery.The up-and-coming Colorado Springs brewery, which opened quietly in an industrial area …